BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Shoveler In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Waterfowl

Northern Shoveler in BCR 4 has fallen sharply: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

-51%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Shoveler has fallen sharply in BCR 4: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in BCR 4 is projected to rise about 53% by 2029 — from 0.25 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.38 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+53%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.38Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±66.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in BCR 4 is projected to rise about 53% by 2029 — from 0.25 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.38 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.430.001.6
20260.420.001.6
20270.410.001.6
20280.400.001.5
20290.380.001.5

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Northern Shoveler in BCR 4.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Koyukuk Riv.ALASKA141995
Chena Hot SpALASKA61990
MonahanALASKA52017
Anvik RiverALASKA52016
PetersvilleALASKA41998
Kanuti CanynALASKA42016
NebesnaALASKA31975
ToklatALASKA32018
Unalakleet RiverALASKA32024
NorthwayALASKA22007
Murphy DomeALASKA22006
Kanuti LakeALASKA22024
Galena (Short)ALASKA22024
Paxson LakeALASKA21997
KuskulanaALASKA22023
CircleALASKA11996
Birch LakeALASKA12016
SlanaALASKA12024
MaclarenALASKA12021
L SalchaALASKA11990
Kenny LakeALASKA12021
SourdoughALASKA11999
Bear CreekALASKA11990
Chena Hot Spring 2ALASKA12021
Nicholai SlALASKA12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.