BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Shoveler In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionWaterfowl

Northern Shoveler in Prairie Hardwood Transition has fallen sharply: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-53%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Shoveler in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±105.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±105.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±105.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.020.000.05
20260.020.000.05
20270.020.000.05
20280.020.000.05
20290.020.000.05

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Northern Shoveler in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BrownsvilleWISCONSIN102014
KnappMINNESOTA22002
Le CenterMINNESOTA22015
New LondonMINNESOTA22024
ManawaWISCONSIN21980
OmroWISCONSIN21998
ManitowocWISCONSIN21993
Rolling PrWISCONSIN21974
ParisWISCONSIN21978
HollandWISCONSIN22002
Indiana DuneINDIANA12015
PrincetonMINNESOTA12004
OsseoMINNESOTA12017
GlenwoodMINNESOTA12010
Sherburne NrMINNESOTA12002
HudsonWISCONSIN12008
DresserWISCONSIN12023
CascoWISCONSIN12009
Pt WashingtnWISCONSIN11973
GreshamWISCONSIN12016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.