BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Shoveler In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestWaterfowl

Northern Shoveler in Northern Pacific Rainforest has edged down: down 25% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

-25%Since 1988TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
18YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Shoveler in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2024, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±230.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2024TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2024 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±230.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2024, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±230.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752024
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20200.040.000.09
20210.040.000.09
20220.040.000.09
20230.040.000.09
20240.040.000.09

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Northern Shoveler in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sheep MtnALASKA102004
ProspectOREGON41998
WedderburnOREGON22019
AdairOREGON22016
Port AngelesWASHINGTON22006
MendotaWASHINGTON21977
Copper RiverALASKA12008
YrekaCALIFORNIA12009
DaytonOREGON11997
ScappooseOREGON12016
Warm BeachWASHINGTON11975
Bay ViewWASHINGTON12002
CarnationWASHINGTON11996

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.