BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Shoveler In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesWaterfowl

Northern Shoveler in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 213% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+213%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
98Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Shoveler has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 213% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 4.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.2 (95% range 2.7–7.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.7–7.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 4.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.2 (95% range 2.7–7.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.02.47.5
20265.02.57.6
20275.12.57.7
20285.22.67.7
20295.22.77.8

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Northern Shoveler in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WestbyMONTANA602024
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA442024
LakotaNORTH-DAKOTA312009
NilesNORTH-DAKOTA302024
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA272024
BraddockNORTH-DAKOTA262022
DanzigNORTH-DAKOTA242014
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA212024
WimbledonNORTH-DAKOTA202024
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA182024
Hay LakeMONTANA172019
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA172023
Lakota 2NORTH-DAKOTA172024
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA132024
BroadlandSOUTH-DAKOTA132013
WebsterNORTH-DAKOTA122024
Long LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA122019
ScrantonIOWA111995
RollaNORTH-DAKOTA102024
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA92022
GormanSOUTH-DAKOTA92007
GlasgowMONTANA81982
Great FallsMONTANA82023
LoraineNORTH-DAKOTA82014
Wolf PointMONTANA72023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.