BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Shoveler In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesWaterfowl

Northern Shoveler in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 110% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+110%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
99Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Shoveler has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 110% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Shoveler In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 408% by 2030 — from 0.99 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 2.3–7.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±96.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+408%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.3–7.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±96.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 408% by 2030 — from 0.99 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 2.3–7.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±96.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.82.07.5
20274.82.17.6
20284.92.17.6
20295.02.27.7
20305.02.37.8

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Northern Shoveler in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WestbyMONTANA602024
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA442024
LakotaNORTH-DAKOTA312009
BraddockNORTH-DAKOTA312023
DanzigNORTH-DAKOTA242014
WimbledonNORTH-DAKOTA212025
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA182024
Hay LakeMONTANA172019
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA172023
BroadlandSOUTH-DAKOTA132013
WebsterNORTH-DAKOTA122024
Long LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA122019
ScrantonIOWA111995
Lakota 2NORTH-DAKOTA112025
RollaNORTH-DAKOTA102024
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA92022
GormanSOUTH-DAKOTA92007
GlasgowMONTANA81982
Great FallsMONTANA82023
LoraineNORTH-DAKOTA82014
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA82025
Wolf PointMONTANA72023
BowesmontNORTH-DAKOTA72013
SunburstMONTANA62007
MaltaMONTANA62024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.