BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 2 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Shoveler In BCR 2

All regionsBCR 2Waterfowl

Northern Shoveler in BCR 2 has collapsed: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1989.

-82%Since 1989TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
26YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Shoveler has collapsed in BCR 2: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1989.

Northern Shoveler In BCR 2 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in BCR 2 is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.31 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±291.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.31Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±291.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in BCR 2 is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.31 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±291.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19862030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.390.002.4
20270.370.002.4
20280.350.002.4
20290.330.002.4
20300.310.002.3

Routes In BCR 2

Routes recording Northern Shoveler in BCR 2.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Selawik (Short)ALASKA131987
Kotzebue (Short)ALASKA101994
Kodiak 2ALASKA22018
CouncilALASKA22005
Salmon LakeALASKA22007
KotzebueALASKA22025
Goodnews BayALASKA22005
Cape NomeALASKA12023
Gweek RiverALASKA12001
Cold Bay (Short)ALASKA11989

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.