BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 2 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Shoveler In BCR 2

All regionsBCR 2Waterfowl

Northern Shoveler in BCR 2 has collapsed: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1989.

-85%Since 1989TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
25YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Shoveler has collapsed in BCR 2: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1989.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in BCR 2 is projected to rise about 10% by 2028 — from 0.33 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.00–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±318%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.37Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±318%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in BCR 2 is projected to rise about 10% by 2028 — from 0.33 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.00–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±318%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19862028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.440.002.5
20250.420.002.5
20260.400.002.5
20270.380.002.5
20280.370.002.4

Routes In BCR 2

Routes recording Northern Shoveler in BCR 2.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Selawik (Short)ALASKA131987
Kotzebue (Short)ALASKA101994
Kodiak 2ALASKA22018
CouncilALASKA22005
Salmon LakeALASKA22007
KotzebueALASKA22023
Goodnews BayALASKA22005
Cape NomeALASKA12023
Gweek RiverALASKA12001
Cold Bay (Short)ALASKA11989

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.