BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Shoveler In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauWaterfowl

Northern Shoveler in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has declined: down 47% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-47%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Shoveler in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±233.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±233.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±233.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.080.000.20
20260.080.000.20
20270.080.000.20
20280.080.000.20
20290.080.000.20

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Northern Shoveler in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rio Grnds RsCOLORADO202009
Mcphee Res.COLORADO62019
GuffeyCOLORADO42023
TincupCOLORADO42017
Grizzly RdgeUTAH41996
M Warner ResUTAH42018
VernalUTAH42017
Pagosa SpgsCOLORADO31977
DinosaurCOLORADO32024
MountainairNEW-MEXICO32019
MoffatCOLORADO21987
AlamosaCOLORADO22023
CortezCOLORADO22002
Angel FireNEW-MEXICO21996
BicknellUTAH22017
ParlinCOLORADO12018
FalfaCOLORADO11977
WaldenCOLORADO12017
DoylevilleCOLORADO12012
Cortez 2COLORADO12015
DulceNEW-MEXICO12014
Dixie NfUTAH11996
BrookhurstWYOMING12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.