BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Shoveler In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinWaterfowl

Northern Shoveler in Great Basin has surged: up 88% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+88%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
82Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Shoveler has surged in Great Basin: up 88% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in Great Basin is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 0.34 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.41 (95% range 0.00–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±122.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.41Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±122.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in Great Basin is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 0.34 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.41 (95% range 0.00–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±122.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.510.003.1
20260.480.003.1
20270.460.003.0
20280.430.003.0
20290.410.003.0

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Northern Shoveler in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WilburWASHINGTON302004
Bear RiverUTAH282023
DorrisCALIFORNIA252019
Twin ButtesIDAHO211999
MerrillOREGON182022
Warner VallyOREGON182024
Cedar HillIDAHO122024
BrewsterWASHINGTON112014
Fish LakeOREGON102023
Columbia NwrWASHINGTON82021
NubieberCALIFORNIA62012
Iron SpringsIDAHO62024
Pasadena ValIDAHO52010
PrestonIDAHO51992
CortezNEVADA52023
Bald Mtn.NEVADA52023
Catlow RimOREGON52024
NighthawkWASHINGTON52019
MacdoelCALIFORNIA42016
TriangleIDAHO42005
Blackft ResIDAHO42018
GardnervilleNEVADA42005
PrincetonOREGON41984
ChinchaloOREGON42015
Trout CreekOREGON42017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.