BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Shoveler In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesWaterfowl

Northern Shoveler in Northern Rockies has fallen sharply: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

-60%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Shoveler has fallen sharply in Northern Rockies: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Northern Shoveler In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±228.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.16Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±228.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±228.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.160.000.36
20270.160.000.36
20280.160.000.36
20290.160.000.36
20300.160.000.36

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Northern Shoveler in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Neponset ResUTAH122017
RawlinsWYOMING72005
Pablo Res.MONTANA61998
Willow Creek 2MONTANA62022
LayCOLORADO52004
NezperceIDAHO41969
PolsonMONTANA42006
BeaverheadMONTANA42019
Rock RiverWYOMING42006
SeedskadeeWYOMING42003
GlenMONTANA32017
HarmonyWYOMING32021
NaplesIDAHO22022
Crane CreekIDAHO22014
FeathervilleIDAHO22001
KalispellMONTANA22019
AugustaMONTANA22024
Painted RockMONTANA21997
East Glacier ParkMONTANA22021
RandolphUTAH22024
Saleratus CrUTAH22018
WoodruffUTAH22011
ChewelahWASHINGTON21984
CusickWASHINGTON22008
DuboisWYOMING22012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.