BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Shoveler In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesWaterfowl

Northern Shoveler in Badlands and Prairies has increased: up 25% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+25%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
87Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Shoveler in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 24% by 2029 — from 0.74 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.56Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 24% by 2029 — from 0.74 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.570.001.3
20260.560.001.3
20270.560.001.3
20280.560.001.3
20290.560.001.3

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Northern Shoveler in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BrandenbergMONTANA142019
DickinsonNORTH-DAKOTA132022
CottonwoodSOUTH-DAKOTA132023
SchoonoverWYOMING121986
Wheat BasinMONTANA112024
WinifredMONTANA92023
OwankaSOUTH-DAKOTA91997
SeelyWYOMING91995
IngomarMONTANA72023
WyarnoWYOMING72018
SussexWYOMING72024
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA62016
RevaSOUTH-DAKOTA62019
EnglewoodSOUTH-DAKOTA62017
MaurineSOUTH-DAKOTA52019
KayceeWYOMING52024
Two DotMONTANA42024
ShawmutMONTANA42024
BowmanNORTH-DAKOTA42024
WinnerSOUTH-DAKOTA42019
VolunteerSOUTH-DAKOTA41995
Eagle ButteSOUTH-DAKOTA42013
SavageMONTANA31979
ForsythMONTANA32022
PowdervilleMONTANA32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.