BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Shoveler In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesWaterfowl

Northern Shoveler in Badlands and Prairies has held roughly steady: up 2% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+2%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
87Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Shoveler in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Northern Shoveler In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 88% by 2030 — from 0.29 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.54 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+88%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.54Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 88% by 2030 — from 0.29 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.54 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.540.001.3
20270.540.001.3
20280.540.001.3
20290.540.001.3
20300.540.001.3

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Northern Shoveler in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BrandenbergMONTANA142019
DickinsonNORTH-DAKOTA132022
SchoonoverWYOMING121986
WinifredMONTANA92023
OwankaSOUTH-DAKOTA91997
SeelyWYOMING91995
WyarnoWYOMING72018
SussexWYOMING72024
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA62016
RevaSOUTH-DAKOTA62019
EnglewoodSOUTH-DAKOTA62017
MaurineSOUTH-DAKOTA52019
Two DotMONTANA42024
Wheat BasinMONTANA42025
WinnerSOUTH-DAKOTA42019
VolunteerSOUTH-DAKOTA41995
Eagle ButteSOUTH-DAKOTA42013
SavageMONTANA31979
ForsythMONTANA32022
PowdervilleMONTANA32024
LarkNORTH-DAKOTA31982
BowmanNORTH-DAKOTA32025
Glen UllinNORTH-DAKOTA32015
Cedar PassSOUTH-DAKOTA31999
CottonwoodSOUTH-DAKOTA32025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.