BirdAnalyst
Guild · Rhode Island · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Waterfowl In Rhode Island

All statesRhode Island

3 species in this guild. As a group they are -61%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1970.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Waterfowl as a group have fallen sharply in Rhode Island, down 60% since 1970.

Waterfowl In Rhode Island Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Waterfowl in Rhode Island is projected to rise about 32× by 2029 — from 0.33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 0.00–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2243.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

32×Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±2243.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Waterfowl in Rhode Island is projected to rise about 32× by 2029 — from 0.33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 0.00–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2243.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025100.0024
2026100.0024
2027100.0024
2028110.0024
2029110.0024

Member Species In Rhode Island

Waterfowl species in Rhode Island.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Canada GooseAnatidae-75%
American Black DuckAnatidae+57%
MallardAnatidae+70%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.