BirdAnalyst
Guild · Massachusetts · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Waterfowl In Massachusetts

All statesMassachusetts

7 species in this guild. As a group they are +183%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for waterfowl in Massachusetts. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Waterfowl in Massachusetts is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.24–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.24–3.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Waterfowl in Massachusetts is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.24–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.60.193.1
20261.70.203.1
20271.70.213.1
20281.70.233.1
20291.70.243.2

Member Species In Massachusetts

Waterfowl species in Massachusetts.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
American Black DuckAnatidae-93%
Common MerganserAnatidae-8%
MallardAnatidae+2%
Hooded MerganserAnatidae+31%
Mute SwanAnatidae+93%
Wood DuckAnatidae+154%
Canada GooseAnatidae21×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.