BirdAnalyst
Species · Massachusetts · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wood Duck Population Trend in Massachusetts

All statesWaterfowl

Wood Duck in Massachusetts has surged: up 148% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+148%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wood Duck Trends in MassachusettsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wood Duck has surged in Massachusetts: up 148% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Wood Duck Population Forecast in Massachusetts

If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Massachusetts is projected to fall about 50% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.57 (95% range 0.08–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-50%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.57Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.08–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Massachusetts is projected to fall about 50% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.57 (95% range 0.08–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.540.061.0
20270.550.061.0
20280.550.071.0
20290.560.081.0
20300.570.081.1

Wood Duck Survey Routes in Massachusetts

Routes recording Wood Duck in Massachusetts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Belchertown1320251986
Prattville619771977
Cummington 2620212018
S Barre420251977
Brockton320191985
Ware River320161999
Sheffield320101997
Gay Head320102010
Wellfleet220052005
N Oxford220161969
Mansfield220152000
N Orange220231984
Chesterfield220101991
Monterey220232021
N. Andover220231995
Marion120241976
Newburyport120222007
Maynard120251988
Littleton120171970
E Pepperell119881968
Warren120051972
Cummington119991999
Cheshire119941978
Pittsfield120161992
Wellfleet 2120172017

Wood Duck Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.