BirdAnalyst
Species · Massachusetts · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wood Duck Population Trend in Massachusetts

All statesWaterfowl

Wood Duck in Massachusetts has surged: up 154% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+154%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wood Duck Trends in MassachusettsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wood Duck has surged in Massachusetts: up 153% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Wood Duck Population Forecast in Massachusetts

If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Massachusetts is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.51 (95% range 0.05–0.96). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.51Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.05–0.9695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Massachusetts is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.51 (95% range 0.05–0.96). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.490.030.94
20260.490.040.95
20270.500.040.95
20280.500.050.96
20290.510.050.96

Wood Duck Survey Routes in Massachusetts

Routes recording Wood Duck in Massachusetts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Prattville619771977
Belchertown620221986
S Barre620241977
Cummington 2620212018
Brockton320191985
Ware River320161999
Sheffield320101997
Gay Head320102010
Wellfleet220052005
N Oxford220161969
Mansfield220152000
N Orange220231984
Chesterfield220101991
Monterey220232021
N. Andover220231995
Marion120241976
Newburyport120222007
Maynard120211988
Littleton120171970
E Pepperell119881968
Warren120051972
Cummington119991999
Cheshire119941978
Pittsfield120161992
Wellfleet 2120172017

Wood Duck Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.