BirdAnalyst
Species · Mississippi · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wood Duck Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesWaterfowl

Wood Duck in Mississippi has surged: up 318% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+318%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wood Duck Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wood Duck has surged in Mississippi: up 318% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Wood Duck Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Mississippi is projected to rise about 204% by 2029 — from 0.26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.80 (95% range 0.10–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±111.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+204%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.80Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.10–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±111.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Mississippi is projected to rise about 204% by 2029 — from 0.26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.80 (95% range 0.10–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±111.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.780.071.5
20260.780.081.5
20270.790.081.5
20280.790.091.5
20290.800.101.5

Wood Duck Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Wood Duck in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Neely720112011
Winterville720112009
Dundee620221971
Scooba619811981
Delta N.F.620211995
Utica519861971
Tchula 3520231995
Lake Mary419891988
Tippo420211996
Cybur420191966
Benndale420221974
Tallahatchie420231996
Eagle Lake320242012
Trace North320182018
Cockrum219671967
Walthall219871987
Duck Hill220031970
Forest220061993
Macon220232023
Duffee220011973
Trace South220172017
Weir220082008
Latimer220171992
Moon220111996
Tchula 2219931976

Wood Duck Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.