BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wood Duck Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesWaterfowl

Wood Duck in Minnesota has edged up: up 18% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+18%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
83Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wood Duck Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Wood Duck in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Wood Duck Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Minnesota is projected to rise about 86% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.10–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±140.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+86%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.10–3.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±140.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Minnesota is projected to rise about 86% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.10–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±140.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.90.033.8
20272.00.053.9
20282.00.063.9
20292.00.083.9
20302.00.103.9

Wood Duck Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Wood Duck in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Big Stone3420121995
Sherburne Nr1520251990
Arlington1020241970
Oklee1019971980
Hartland720171979
Chandler720211981
Chokio North720251993
Blackduck720222004
Tamarac Nwr720231991
Minnetonka620251969
Bemidji619801967
Beltrami620251967
Fairmont620251993
Ashby620211997
Knapp520191968
Glenwood520191993
Appleton420141980
Gluek420181990
Worthington420252005
Lakeville320251974
Evergreen320211970
Crane Lake320161989
Tracy320252005
New London320241994
Whitewater 2320162013

Wood Duck Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.