BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wood Duck Population Trend in Missouri

All statesWaterfowl

Wood Duck in Missouri has surged: up 253% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+253%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
71Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wood Duck Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wood Duck has surged in Missouri: up 253% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Wood Duck Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Missouri is projected to rise about 101% by 2030 — from 0.21 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.41 (95% range 0.07–0.75). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±108.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+101%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.41Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.07–0.7595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±108.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Missouri is projected to rise about 101% by 2030 — from 0.21 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.41 (95% range 0.07–0.75). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±108.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.400.060.74
20270.400.070.74
20280.410.070.75
20290.410.070.75
20300.410.070.75

Wood Duck Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Wood Duck in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sticklervill820241984
Millwood720162014
Norborne620182007
New Hampton520232016
Bennett420242022
Barks420121994
Frankford420251985
Wesco319881981
Kahoka2320242002
Tarkio319871977
Mincy320252016
Marshfield320172008
Union319991991
Gildehouse319861986
Deventer220151967
Pulaski220231991
Sweden220251996
Cassville220101988
Cameron220211990
Clementine219951980
Graydon220081995
Barnard220032003
Sni Mills219831983
Stet219831973
Richland220212021

Wood Duck Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.