BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wood Duck Population Trend in New York

All statesWaterfowl

Wood Duck in New York has surged: up 151% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+151%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
109Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wood Duck Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wood Duck has surged in New York: up 151% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Wood Duck Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.55 (95% range 0.25–0.86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.55Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.25–0.8695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.55 (95% range 0.25–0.86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.530.230.84
20270.540.230.84
20280.540.240.85
20290.550.240.85
20300.550.250.86

Wood Duck Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Wood Duck in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
N Wilmurt1319981983
Sabattis819671967
Castile720251969
S Vandalia720031977
Mt Morris620141971
E Youngstown620251989
Ogdensburg620161983
Argyle520241968
Downsville520171990
Corbettsvile420251980
St Johnsburg420241970
Parishville420242010
Milford420231982
Westhampton320211995
Huntington320181967
W Shokan319801980
Mt Hope319981967
Coventryvile320192010
Rushville320171974
West Seneca320041967
Randolph320161971
Sheridan319911978
Warwick 2319931976
Highland220051974
Cobleskill220171968

Wood Duck Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.