BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wood Duck Population Trend in New York

All statesWaterfowl

Wood Duck in New York has surged: up 94% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+94%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
109Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wood Duck Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wood Duck has surged in New York: up 94% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Wood Duck Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in New York is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 0.48 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.54 (95% range 0.23–0.85). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.54Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.23–0.8595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±70.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in New York is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 0.48 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.54 (95% range 0.23–0.85). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.520.210.83
20260.530.220.84
20270.530.220.84
20280.540.230.85
20290.540.230.85

Wood Duck Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Wood Duck in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
N Wilmurt1319981983
Sabattis819671967
S Vandalia720031977
Mt Morris620141971
Castile620241969
Ogdensburg620161983
Argyle520241968
Downsville520171990
Austerlitz420241966
St Johnsburg420241970
Parishville420242010
Milford420231982
Westhampton320211995
Huntington320181967
W Shokan319801980
Mt Hope319981967
Coventryvile320192010
Oriskany Fls319941967
Rushville320171974
West Seneca320041967
Randolph320161971
Sheridan319911978
Warwick 2319931976
Highland220051974
Cobleskill220171968

Wood Duck Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.