BirdAnalyst
Species · Alabama · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wood Duck Population Trend in Alabama

All statesWaterfowl

Wood Duck in Alabama has surged: up 150% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+150%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wood Duck Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wood Duck has surged in Alabama: up 150% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Wood Duck Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Alabama is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 0.46 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.57 (95% range 0.07–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.57Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.07–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±84.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Alabama is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 0.46 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.57 (95% range 0.07–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.560.061.1
20260.560.071.1
20270.560.071.1
20280.570.071.1
20290.570.071.1

Wood Duck Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Wood Duck in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mt Olive920142014
Bay Minette720241996
Drummond520222008
Valhermoso Spgs420081972
Dawson419961968
Greensboro420231975
Grangeburg420241966
Castleberry420241970
Millry420111972
Dauphin Is419891975
Odenville420181996
Rock Chapel420232002
Maytown320191985
Wallsboro320021990
Lanett320081978
South319941994
Childersburg319991987
Lakeview320122001
Riverside320131999
Chacaloochee Bay320172009
St Florian219991968
Trade219991990
Dearmanville219721972
Greensport220241973
Linden220042002

Wood Duck Population Trend in Other States

arizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.