BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wood Duck Population Trend in Vermont

All statesWaterfowl

Wood Duck in Vermont has surged: up 77% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+77%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wood Duck Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wood Duck has surged in Vermont: up 77% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Wood Duck Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Vermont is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 0.67 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.54 (95% range 0.02–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.54Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±68.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Vermont is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 0.67 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.54 (95% range 0.02–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.520.001.0
20260.520.001.0
20270.530.011.0
20280.530.011.1
20290.540.021.1

Wood Duck Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Wood Duck in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Grand Isle720231968
Marlboro420241990
Bristol420001997
Gaysville220122012
Shaftsbury220241978
S Wallingfrd220181974
W Rutland220241979
East Calais220182018
Hardwick220161999
Hinesburg219931980
North Pownal120231981
Landgrove120231995
S Reading120241966
Post Mills120231977
St Johnsbury120181970
East Haven120242021
Middlesex120171985
Greensboro120211983
Waterville119791979
Colchester120241992
Stowe120242024

Wood Duck Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.