BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wood Duck Population Trend in Texas

All statesWaterfowl

Wood Duck in Texas has declined: down 32% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-32%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wood Duck Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Wood Duck in Texas. See the full index history below.

Wood Duck Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Texas is projected to rise about 102% by 2030 — from 0.05 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+102%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±74.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Texas is projected to rise about 102% by 2030 — from 0.05 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.100.000.26
20270.100.000.25
20280.100.000.25
20290.100.000.25
20300.100.000.25

Wood Duck Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Wood Duck in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Peach Creek719741974
Bonner420162007
Gambill Ref.420231995
Hinkles Fer320211973
Liberty Hill320141969
Miller Grove320031994
Mt. Selman320212009
Paige220182016
Schroeder219951995
Blue Ridge220212014
Cayuga220181996
Winnie220141993
Danbury220071981
Shields 2220182004
E Georgetown219741974
Caledonia220251974
Port Acres220161994
Athens220161988
Chandler220001968
Moon Lake220061995
Weatherford220252024
Selden220092007
Yoakum219991994
Lydia220232011
Dike220181989

Wood Duck Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.