BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wood Duck Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesWaterfowl

Wood Duck in New Jersey has held roughly steady: down 9% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-9%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wood Duck Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Wood Duck in New Jersey. See the full index history below.

Wood Duck Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in New Jersey is projected to fall about 36% by 2030 — from 0.72 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.46 (95% range 0.00–0.97). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-36%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.46Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in New Jersey is projected to fall about 36% by 2030 — from 0.72 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.46 (95% range 0.00–0.97). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.450.000.96
20270.450.000.96
20280.460.000.97
20290.460.000.97
20300.460.000.97

Wood Duck Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Wood Duck in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Croton1519981976
Kemah Lake1020221970
Roosevelt919861986
High Point520251990
Ancora419681968
Spraguetown 2420072000
Hope319781975
Pedricktown 2320242014
Pedricktown320121991
Ramseysburg320251998
Six Points220071997
Deepwater219711971
Holmansville219941977
Pottersville219771977
Gillette220131988
Cranbury219891989
Winslow220101989
Bennett Mill 2220252025
Woodbury Hgt119921968
Greenwich120251966
Toms River119771966
Albion120112011
Sandbrook120231992
New Bedford120131970
Midvale120031973

Wood Duck Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.