BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wood Duck Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesWaterfowl

Wood Duck in New Jersey has edged down: down 20% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-20%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wood Duck Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Wood Duck in New Jersey. See the full index history below.

Wood Duck Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in New Jersey is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 0.38 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.43 (95% range 0.00–0.94). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±196.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.43Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±196.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in New Jersey is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 0.38 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.43 (95% range 0.00–0.94). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±196.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.430.000.94
20260.430.000.94
20270.430.000.94
20280.430.000.94
20290.430.000.94

Wood Duck Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Wood Duck in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Croton1519981976
Kemah Lake1020221970
Roosevelt919861986
Ancora419681968
Spraguetown 2420072000
Hope319781975
Pedricktown 2320242014
Pedricktown320121991
Greenwich220241966
Six Points220071997
Deepwater219711971
Holmansville219941977
Pottersville219771977
Gillette220131988
Cranbury219891989
Friendship220021990
Spraguetown 3220242024
Winslow220101989
Woodbury Hgt119921968
Toms River119771966
Albion120112011
Sandbrook120231992
New Bedford120131970
Midvale120031973
Bloomsbury120231978

Wood Duck Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.