BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wood Duck Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesWaterfowl

Wood Duck in North Dakota has surged: up 518% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+518%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wood Duck Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wood Duck has surged in North Dakota: up 518% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Wood Duck Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in North Dakota is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.67–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.67–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in North Dakota is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.67–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.581.8
20261.20.601.9
20271.30.621.9
20281.30.651.9
20291.30.671.9

Wood Duck Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Wood Duck in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kempton2120131996
Cooperstown1220231970
Bowman1120022002
Horsehead Lk920241994
Buchanan820241968
Rolla820242014
Abercrombie720121974
Montpelier720242002
Forman620241970
Lakota420061968
Douglas Crk420151997
Turtle Mtns420231980
Regan320212008
Zap319971997
Powers Lake320072000
Danzig 2320242021
Danzig220142000
Dunn Center220142014
Stanley220081993
Denbigh220191972
Cedar Creek219881988
Bentley220142014
Parshall220051990
Sheyenne Lk220241989
Lakota 2220242016

Wood Duck Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.