BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wood Duck Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesWaterfowl

Wood Duck in Kentucky has surged: up 280% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+280%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wood Duck Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wood Duck has surged in Kentucky: up 280% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Wood Duck Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Kentucky is projected to rise about 82% by 2029 — from 0.32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.58 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+82%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.58Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±59.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Kentucky is projected to rise about 82% by 2029 — from 0.32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.58 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.570.001.3
20260.570.001.3
20270.580.001.3
20280.580.001.3
20290.580.001.3

Wood Duck Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Wood Duck in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Buena Vista820171975
Morganfield820242022
Lebanon Junction720102001
East Union620221978
Million 2620192010
Sulphur Lick520231998
Mcbrayer519861969
Dixie419831983
Beattyville319961974
Million319811976
Goshen319901971
Cumberlnd Gp220112001
Keysburg220191968
Dixon220132013
Pleasurevill220081989
Levee219761975
Kings Mtn220151979
Gatewood220161974
Daniel Boone219811969
Joy220221969
Hodgenville 2220222009
Lovelacevile120111967
Shiloh119841970
Canton120121968
Cedar Grove120191980

Wood Duck Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.