BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wood Duck Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesWaterfowl

Wood Duck in North Carolina has surged: up 198% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+198%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wood Duck Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wood Duck has surged in North Carolina: up 198% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Wood Duck Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in North Carolina is projected to rise about 40% by 2030 — from 0.51 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.71 (95% range 0.33–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+40%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.71Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.33–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±92.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in North Carolina is projected to rise about 40% by 2030 — from 0.51 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.71 (95% range 0.33–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.680.301.1
20270.680.311.1
20280.690.321.1
20290.700.321.1
20300.710.331.1

Wood Duck Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Wood Duck in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Old Trap2620222011
Pinetops1220222010
Speed1120251968
Flay720211994
Todd520221997
Bullock520252015
Myrtle Grove420042002
Call420181998
Linville419971994
Siloam420162011
Montague420242001
Cokesbury420172017
Rose319961996
Dismal Swamp320241993
Cullowhee320071976
Goldston320132007
Genoa320141992
Supply320141999
Jarvisburg319921992
Reelsboro320041997
California 2320252017
Hallsboro220051984
Raeford220131990
Jordan220061970
Mooresville219951995

Wood Duck Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.