BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wood Duck Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesWaterfowl

Wood Duck in Arkansas has surged: up 172% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+172%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wood Duck Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wood Duck has surged in Arkansas: up 172% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Wood Duck Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Arkansas is projected to rise about 120% by 2029 — from 0.36 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.79 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±88.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+120%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.79Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±88.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Arkansas is projected to rise about 120% by 2029 — from 0.36 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.79 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±88.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.780.001.7
20260.780.001.7
20270.780.001.7
20280.780.001.7
20290.790.001.7

Wood Duck Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Wood Duck in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
England720212010
Havana620212011
Coal Hill520231980
Dell520182010
Nance519971997
Wilson520241993
Hughes420191967
Saffell420172000
Stark420061968
Kelso420112010
West Tyler319841977
South Bend320231968
Hollywood320051989
Harrisburg319991967
Maynard320241978
Old Milo220061973
Hope219901981
Ashdown220151973
Crows219901990
Blakely219931988
Whitton219851974
Massard220221993
Magazine Mtn220172000
Princeton220042004
Eudora120071968

Wood Duck Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.