BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wood Duck Population Trend in Florida

All statesWaterfowl

Wood Duck in Florida has fallen sharply: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-54%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
87Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wood Duck Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wood Duck has fallen sharply in Florida: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Wood Duck Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Florida is projected to rise about 60% by 2029 — from 0.23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.00–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+60%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.36Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±59.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Florida is projected to rise about 60% by 2029 — from 0.23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.00–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.390.000.92
20260.390.000.91
20270.380.000.90
20280.370.000.90
20290.360.000.89

Wood Duck Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Wood Duck in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wildernes Pk920141993
Kenansville719981971
Palmdale720042004
St Vincent I720182000
Gardner619991992
Scottsmoor520241969
Bloxham520222006
New Hope520102009
Lake Buffum520211987
Crewsville520002000
Belmont420241966
Dale Mabry419871966
Ft Lonesome420081981
Pinecrest419741970
Alligator Pt420221998
Nobleton420161990
Sandy420061989
Island Grove420211997
Mabel 2420172017
Oak Grove320112001
Broad Branch320211970
Seminole Hls320001967
Ft Gadsden319841976
Hilliard320231970
Belmore320221970

Wood Duck Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.