BirdAnalyst
Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wood Duck Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesWaterfowl

Wood Duck in Pennsylvania has surged: up 160% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+160%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
100Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wood Duck Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wood Duck has surged in Pennsylvania: up 160% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Wood Duck Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Pennsylvania is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.46 (95% range 0.24–0.67). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.46Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.24–0.6795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Pennsylvania is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.46 (95% range 0.24–0.67). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.430.220.65
20270.440.230.65
20280.450.230.66
20290.450.240.66
20300.460.240.67

Wood Duck Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Wood Duck in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pocono Summit1420231978
Labott1119701969
Mawr Glen1020251988
Eldred920101995
Greentown920181988
Mifflintown720112000
Shelocta620251984
Betula520181993
Harrisville520192004
Roulette420161994
Pottersdale319941994
Plesant Grov320212007
Munson320251999
Naginey319991979
Quakertown319821979
Normalville319741967
Aspers319811981
Doe Run320211970
Ellenton320251989
Wyalusing320231991
Berwick320091997
Slippery Rk219931988
Espyville220191998
Teepleville220211967
Lynch220001986

Wood Duck Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonrhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.