BirdAnalyst
Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wood Duck Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesWaterfowl

Wood Duck in Pennsylvania has surged: up 111% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+111%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
99Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wood Duck Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wood Duck has surged in Pennsylvania: up 111% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Wood Duck Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 29% by 2029 — from 0.35 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.45 (95% range 0.23–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+29%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.45Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.23–0.6695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 29% by 2029 — from 0.35 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.45 (95% range 0.23–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.430.210.64
20260.430.220.65
20270.440.230.65
20280.440.230.66
20290.450.230.66

Wood Duck Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Wood Duck in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pocono Summit1420231978
Labott1119701969
Eldred920101995
Greentown920181988
Mawr Glen820241988
Mifflintown720112000
Ellenton620191989
Brunnerville 2620192010
Betula520181993
Harrisville520192004
Roulette420161994
Schaefferstown 2420242009
Pottersdale319941994
Arnot320241992
Plesant Grov320212007
Naginey319991979
Quakertown319821979
Normalville319741967
Aspers319811981
Doe Run320211970
Chatham320241999
Wyalusing320231991
Berwick320091997
Slippery Rk219931988
Espyville220191998

Wood Duck Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonrhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.