BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wood Duck Population Trend in Montana

All statesWaterfowl

Wood Duck in Montana has fallen sharply: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

-53%Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wood Duck Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wood Duck has fallen sharply in Montana: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

Wood Duck Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Montana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±135.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±135.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Montana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±135.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19812030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.060.000.16
20270.060.000.16
20280.060.000.16
20290.060.000.15
20300.060.000.15

Wood Duck Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Wood Duck in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Painted Rock319981998
Willow Creek 2219941987
St Xavier 2220212018
Augusta220112011
Jordan220172017
Clinton220081985
St Xavier220102010
Brandenberg220252010
Chinook220162016
Wolf Point220242024
Hehn Draw220212021
Noxon219981998
Libby Dam120001981
Kalispell120151985
Victor120142014
Glen120242017
St Regis120002000
Arlee119871987
Elliston120092009
Ingomar120082008
Forsyth120211990
Laurel120101993
Powderville120222022
Ninemile120052002
Philipsburg120242024

Wood Duck Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.