BirdAnalyst
Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wood Duck Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesWaterfowl

Wood Duck in Oklahoma has declined: down 40% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-40%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wood Duck Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Wood Duck in Oklahoma. See the full index history below.

Wood Duck Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 90% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±113.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+90%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±113.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 90% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±113.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.130.000.31
20260.130.000.31
20270.130.000.31
20280.130.000.31
20290.130.000.31

Wood Duck Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Wood Duck in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Elgin1019941994
Mcalester619851968
Keetonville620121994
Bethel320001994
Big Cedar219881988
Ardmore220031984
Randlett220232003
Canadian220021971
Choctaw220191977
Verden220051985
Eagle City219991996
Grimes220241994
Erick220231995
Peoria220102001
Wakita220152015
Goodwater220192004
Tatums220072003
Pocola220052005
Arapaho220091997
Clear Lake220152015
Blanco120162016
Phroso120122012
Ouachita Nf120072007
Wichita Mtns East120222018
Ft Sill East119941994

Wood Duck Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.