BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wood Duck Population Trend in Washington

All statesWaterfowl

Wood Duck in Washington has surged: up 405% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+405%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wood Duck Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wood Duck has surged in Washington: up 405% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Wood Duck Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Washington is projected to fall about 53% by 2029 — from 0.51 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-53%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.24Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Washington is projected to fall about 53% by 2029 — from 0.51 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.230.000.50
20260.240.000.50
20270.240.000.50
20280.240.000.50
20290.240.000.50

Wood Duck Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Wood Duck in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Moses Lake1720101991
Port Angeles719841984
Mukilteo720241993
Columbia Nwr620151992
Nighthawk520241993
Everett420242014
Leavenworth419961996
Scootney Reservoir420242024
Potholes420131997
Mendota 2319951991
Brewster219951995
L Pend O Nwr220242019
Reardan220181984
Bunker Hill219971997
Camas220181983
Cusick220242021
South Elma220231984
Ellensburg220122008
Othello219891989
Bay View220112002
Pe Ell220051993
Yakima220241995
Carnation220221989
Warm Beach120071988
Twisp120221987

Wood Duck Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.