BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wood Duck Population Trend in Kansas

All statesWaterfowl

Wood Duck in Kansas has surged: up 370% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+370%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wood Duck Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wood Duck has surged in Kansas: up 370% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Wood Duck Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Kansas is projected to rise about 193% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–0.87). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±111.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+193%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.34Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±111.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Kansas is projected to rise about 193% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–0.87). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±111.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.330.000.86
20260.330.000.86
20270.330.000.86
20280.340.000.87
20290.340.000.87

Wood Duck Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Wood Duck in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Olsburg920222000
Coldwater620111995
Ash Valley620072000
Coats420092009
Galesburg320212006
Jewell 2320072007
Jewell319991993
Jamestown320172002
Humboldt220211999
Lapland220102001
Wellington220151983
Dalton220222003
Barclay220171977
Ellinor220081982
Grantville220181995
Hanover220232023
Minneapolis220091969
Logan220221992
Bucyrus220222022
Morehead220242024
Hopewell220122008
Goessel220132009
Grigston220062006
Solomon220101997
Melrose120181974

Wood Duck Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.