BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wood Duck Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesWaterfowl

Wood Duck in Tennessee has surged: up 282% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+282%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wood Duck Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wood Duck has surged in Tennessee: up 281% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Wood Duck Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Tennessee is projected to rise about 46% by 2029 — from 0.27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.00–0.84). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+46%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.40Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Tennessee is projected to rise about 46% by 2029 — from 0.27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.00–0.84). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.400.000.84
20260.400.000.84
20270.400.000.84
20280.400.000.84
20290.400.000.84

Wood Duck Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Wood Duck in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lewis Forest820191968
Peytonsville720211976
Glen720231968
Mt Olive520191974
Corryton Rd419891975
Jones Gap320151982
Union Hill320241976
Red Bank319761976
Jasper320241985
Pawpaw 2320152013
Pawpaw220101969
Humboldt220211979
Indian Mound219851967
Bradyville220211991
Lovell220171984
Oliver Spgs220221969
Signal Mtn120141979
Tiptonville120121967
Moscow120211976
Brownsville120102008
Tibbs119941994
Whiteville120211985
Big Sandy120211970
Mansfield120131979
Sweetlips120171985

Wood Duck Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.