BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wood Duck Population Trend in Ohio

All statesWaterfowl

Wood Duck in Ohio has fallen sharply: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-58%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
85Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wood Duck Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wood Duck has fallen sharply in Ohio: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Wood Duck Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Ohio is projected to rise about 164% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.00–0.96). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+164%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.35Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±83.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Ohio is projected to rise about 164% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.00–0.96). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.360.000.97
20260.360.000.97
20270.350.000.97
20280.350.000.96
20290.350.000.96

Wood Duck Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Wood Duck in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Coshocton1819911991
Bismark1419951969
Garrettsvile919911971
Coal Run919911966
Maysville719931992
Kalida520181970
Newcomerstwn519941983
Wayland420121992
Troy419911967
Marion420061966
Cuba420191996
Dell419941994
Hiram420191992
Kingsway320211966
Smithfield320231980
Newport319941967
Xenia319961967
Bolins Mills320011966
Bloomville220211996
N Baltimore220181996
Peru219761967
Kenton220241974
New Dover220221969
Lucerne220041992
Dunlap219791966

Wood Duck Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.