BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wood Duck Population Trend in Oregon

All statesWaterfowl

Wood Duck in Oregon has fallen sharply: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-50%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wood Duck Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wood Duck has fallen sharply in Oregon: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Wood Duck Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Oregon is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±125%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±125%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Oregon is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±125%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.140.000.36
20260.140.000.36
20270.140.000.36
20280.140.000.36
20290.140.000.36

Wood Duck Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Wood Duck in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sandy River1220061996
Nicolai Mtn.1020241995
Modoc Point620181987
Dell Spring419841984
Emigrant Lk420011973
Ruch420162006
Umatilla420232021
Salado319881968
Days Creek320111977
Clearwater320212021
Hauser219791979
Winberry219731973
Bly 2220092009
Adair219751975
Dayton220051974
Garfield219981978
Bly219951994
Canby220141996
Waldport219971996
Catlow Rim220192019
Glasgow219961996
Chinchalo220241994
Timber119971997
Tualatin119951978
Santiam119991994

Wood Duck Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.