BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wood Duck Population Trend in Michigan

All statesWaterfowl

Wood Duck in Michigan has surged: up 160% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+160%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
83Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wood Duck Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wood Duck has surged in Michigan: up 160% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Wood Duck Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Michigan is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 0.68 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.82 (95% range 0.15–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.82Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.15–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Michigan is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 0.68 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.82 (95% range 0.15–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.800.131.5
20260.810.141.5
20270.810.141.5
20280.820.151.5
20290.820.151.5

Wood Duck Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Wood Duck in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Big Rapids819901982
Homer820171982
Imp Lake820161994
Seney Nwr620241992
Irons519891976
St Charles520101976
Walloon Lake 2520102010
Wilson419931985
Skegemog Pt420241994
Monterey420241978
Hubbard Lake419951992
Mayfield420212000
Barry S.G.A. 2420192013
Bravo320131980
Tahquamenon320211987
Galesburg320241968
Prattville320181969
Tyre319801979
Bergland219901989
Maple Grove219971996
Ishpeming219911991
Creighton220161986
Big Blue Lk220181992
Nashville220241969
Coopersville220211999

Wood Duck Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.