BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wood Duck Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesWaterfowl

Wood Duck in Nebraska has surged: up 511% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+511%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wood Duck Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wood Duck has surged in Nebraska: up 511% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Wood Duck Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Nebraska is projected to rise about 85% by 2030 — from 0.38 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.71 (95% range 0.24–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+85%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.71Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.24–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Nebraska is projected to rise about 85% by 2030 — from 0.38 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.71 (95% range 0.24–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.670.201.1
20270.680.211.2
20280.690.221.2
20290.700.231.2
20300.710.241.2

Wood Duck Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Wood Duck in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Berwyn1019941994
Richland720251996
Brownlee720231992
Liberty620031972
Stratton520162003
Tilden520252019
Belvidere420241986
Thurston420231988
Nenzel420242021
Chambers420232023
Sutherland420232023
Sargent420252024
Julian220211994
Johnson220251992
Seward220251986
Sumner220071987
Surprise220242003
Agate 2220132008
Almeria219831983
Eagle Creek220251976
Mullen220232017
Bassett220192019
Red Cloud220242018
Hampton220192019
Liberty 3220242024

Wood Duck Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.