BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wood Duck Population Trend in Virginia

All statesWaterfowl

Wood Duck in Virginia has surged: up 199% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+199%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wood Duck Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wood Duck has surged in Virginia: up 199% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Wood Duck Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Virginia is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 0.75 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.49 (95% range 0.03–0.96). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±172%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-34%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.49Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.9695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±172%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Virginia is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 0.75 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.49 (95% range 0.03–0.96). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±172%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.480.010.95
20260.480.020.95
20270.490.020.96
20280.490.020.96
20290.490.030.96

Wood Duck Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Wood Duck in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Brandon3220241995
Pine Mtn.2520142014
Stickleyvill919751975
Hall720021967
Taylorstown620081974
Big Island619831983
Wylliesburg620171996
David520011977
Concord520101992
Sharps520061974
Newbern419821971
Newsoms420151982
Blacksburg420062006
Port Royal320191977
Nat Tunnel319961996
Colonial Pky319971996
Edinburg220241968
Isom220061970
Covington220181981
Ft Pickett N219951994
Waverly219871967
Church Road220181968
White Stone220191969
Surry220101982
Chincoteag W220192005

Wood Duck Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.