BirdAnalyst
Species · Massachusetts · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mallard Population Trend in Massachusetts

All statesWaterfowl

Mallard in Massachusetts has edged up: up 15% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+15%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mallard Trends in MassachusettsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mallard in Massachusetts. See the full index history below.

Mallard Population Forecast in Massachusetts

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Massachusetts is projected to rise about 35% by 2030 — from 0.88 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±274.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+35%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±274.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Massachusetts is projected to rise about 35% by 2030 — from 0.88 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±274.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.20.002.8
20271.20.002.8
20281.20.002.8
20291.20.002.8
20301.20.002.8

Mallard Survey Routes in Massachusetts

Routes recording Mallard in Massachusetts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cheshire2719941974
Chilmark1519831969
E Dennis920181969
E Pepperell919941970
Marion520251970
Brockton320191988
Mansfield320161973
Chesterfield220061996
Sheffield220061976
Gay Head220252005
Wellfleet 2220192016
Cummington 2220252017
Ware River120151993
Prattville120191976
Newburyport120221978
Maynard120161988
Littleton120211972
N Oxford120161969
Princeton119741970
Belchertown120241967
Warren120051973
S Barre120251971
N Orange120131970
Cummington120121994
Pittsfield120091979

Mallard Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.