BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard Population Trend in Oregon

All statesWaterfowl

Mallard in Oregon has surged: up 86% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+86%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
112Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mallard Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mallard has surged in Oregon: up 86% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Mallard Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Oregon is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 0.00–8.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–8.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Oregon is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 0.00–8.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.90.008.6
20262.90.008.6
20272.90.008.6
20282.90.008.6
20292.80.008.6

Mallard Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Mallard in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Catlow Rim5520241994
Umatilla5320231988
Fish Lake5120241972
Bly3320011973
Glasgow3320241986
Joseph2520231971
Warner Vally1820241993
Malheur Nwr1719981986
Sparta1620011971
Barnes Val1519871971
Coquille1520241994
Sandy River1320041993
Princeton1019851972
Emigrant Lk1020011972
Nicolai Mtn.1020241994
Madras1020221998
Summit Pr820241981
Salado720111974
Svensen719911991
Clearwater720211993
Three Forks720172005
Scappoose720221995
Battle Mtn619991988
Lapham Res.620241991
Merrill620221993

Mallard Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.