BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mallard Population Trend in Oregon

All statesWaterfowl

Mallard in Oregon has surged: up 102% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+102%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
115Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mallard Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mallard has surged in Oregon: up 102% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Mallard Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Oregon is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.8 (95% range 0.00–8.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–8.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Oregon is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.8 (95% range 0.00–8.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.90.008.5
20272.80.008.5
20282.80.008.5
20292.80.008.5
20302.80.008.5

Mallard Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Mallard in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Modoc Point 28720252024
Catlow Rim3520251994
Bly3320011973
Fish Lake3320251972
Glasgow3320241986
Warner Vally1820241993
Malheur Nwr1719981986
Sparta1620251971
Barnes Val1519871971
Bridgeport1420251986
Sandy River1320041993
Bly 21220252008
Tualatin1020251968
Princeton1019851972
Emigrant Lk1020011972
Madras1020221998
Salado720111974
Svensen719911991
Clover Creek620251975
Battle Mtn619991988
Lapham Res.620241991
Merrill620221993
Modoc Point520181969
Adrian520171984
Salem520241993

Mallard Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.