BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard Population Trend in Arizona

All statesWaterfowl

Mallard in Arizona has increased: up 42% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+42%Since 1975
39Routes In State
47Years

Notable Mallard Trends in Arizona

No notable trend signals for Mallard in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Mallard Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Arizona is projected to rise about 102% by 2029 — from 0.37 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.75 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±91.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+102%Change by 2029
0.75Projected 2029 index
0.00–1.695% range
±91.6%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.720.001.5
20260.730.001.5
20270.740.001.6
20280.740.001.6
20290.750.001.6

Mallard Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Mallard in Arizona.
Alpine720231992
Palo Verde 2620232014
Cactus Forest620241996
Mormon Lake519751968
Amado520142010
Peach Spring520242013
Prescott420191979
Dry Park420161994
Palo Verde420131994
Araby420231996
Red Rock420141993
Black Mesa319951989
Blue319911984
Williams320062001
Kaibito320132013
Rucker220012001
Sawmill220141988
Laguna220231996
Pomerene220111986
Patagonia220101993
Cow Springs220192018
Skull Valley220142014
Cibola Lake220141994
Willow Beach 2220242004
Hope 2220152015

Mallard Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.