BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mallard Population Trend in Arizona

All statesWaterfowl

Mallard in Arizona has surged: up 130% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+130%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mallard Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mallard has surged in Arizona: up 130% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Mallard Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Arizona is projected to fall about 32% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.80 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-32%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.80Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±75.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Arizona is projected to fall about 32% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.80 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.770.001.6
20270.770.001.6
20280.780.001.6
20290.790.001.6
20300.800.001.6

Mallard Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Mallard in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Alpine4220251992
Cactus Forest620241996
Mormon Lake519751968
Amado520142010
Peach Spring520242013
Prescott420191979
Palo Verde 2420252014
Dry Park420161994
Palo Verde420131994
Araby420231996
Red Rock420141993
Black Mesa319951989
Blue319911984
Kaibito320132013
Rucker220012001
Sawmill220141988
Laguna220231996
Pomerene220111986
Patagonia220101993
Cow Springs220192018
Williams220252001
Skull Valley220142014
Cibola Lake220141994
Willow Beach 2220242004
Hope 2220152015

Mallard Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.