BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesWaterfowl

Mallard in Arkansas has declined: down 38% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-38%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mallard Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mallard in Arkansas. See the full index history below.

Mallard Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Arkansas is projected to fall about 68% by 2029 — from 0.18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-68%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Arkansas is projected to fall about 68% by 2029 — from 0.18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.080.000.37
20260.080.000.36
20270.070.000.36
20280.060.000.35
20290.060.000.35

Mallard Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Mallard in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hughes620191973
Rupert519901990
Saffell420001998
Augusta 2420112011
Hope319901990
Dell320242011
Ulm320121994
Stamps220012001
South Bend220181970
Whitton219911974
Stark219771977
Nance220052003
Wilson220241996
Eudora120051985
Harrisburg120121984
Augusta119941973
Maynard120101989
England120152013
Kelso120102010

Mallard Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.