BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mallard Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesWaterfowl

Mallard in North Dakota has surged: up 228% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+228%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mallard Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mallard has surged in North Dakota: up 228% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Mallard Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in North Dakota is projected to rise about 39% by 2030 — from 38 in 2025 to a central estimate of 53 (95% range 33–73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+39%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
33–7395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in North Dakota is projected to rise about 39% by 2030 — from 38 in 2025 to a central estimate of 53 (95% range 33–73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026503071
2027513171
2028523172
2029523273
2030533373

Mallard Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Mallard in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sheyenne Lk27520251980
Edgeley12120251980
Wild Rose11520251982
Lakota 27920252010
Danzig6920141982
Carpio6120231967
Golva5720251979
Buchanan5620251967
Lakota5120091968
Webster4520241989
Cooperstown4120251969
Danzig 24120252019
Rolla4020241969
Bowesmont3920141968
Wimbledon3520251981
Horsehead Lk3420251980
Niles2920251989
Denbigh2620251969
Cedar Creek2520221968
Parshall2520131982
Sydney2319831967
Montpelier2320251990
Forman1920251968
Braddock1920231988
Bowesmont 21920162015

Mallard Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.