BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesWaterfowl

Mallard in North Dakota has surged: up 317% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+317%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mallard Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mallard has surged in North Dakota: up 317% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Mallard Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in North Dakota is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 39 in 2024 to a central estimate of 54 (95% range 33–74). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+36%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
33–7495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in North Dakota is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 39 in 2024 to a central estimate of 54 (95% range 33–74). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025513171
2026523172
2027523273
2028533373
2029543374

Mallard Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Mallard in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wild Rose13820241982
Niles9220241989
Sheyenne Lk8520241980
Forman7420241968
Danzig6920141982
Cooperstown6820241969
Buchanan6720241967
Carpio6120231967
Horsehead Lk5220241980
Lakota5120091968
Denbigh4920241969
Emerado4720241974
Braddock4720221988
Lakota 24720242010
Webster4520241989
Danzig 24520242019
Wimbledon4320241981
Rolla4020241969
Bowesmont3920141968
Stanley3620241967
Gorham3020181968
Montpelier3020241990
Edgeley2820241980
Cedar Creek2520221968
Parshall2520131982

Mallard Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.