BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesWaterfowl

Mallard in North Dakota has surged: up 317% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+317%Since 1969
51Routes In State
57Years

Notable Mallard Trends in North Dakota

long arc increasecomputed index

Mallard has surged in North Dakota: up 317% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Mallard Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in North Dakota is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 39 in 2024 to a central estimate of 54 (95% range 33–74). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+36%Change by 2029
54Projected 2029 index
33–7495% range
±19.4%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
2025513171
2026523172
2027523273
2028533373
2029543374

Mallard Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Mallard in North Dakota.
Wild Rose13820241982
Niles9220241989
Sheyenne Lk8520241980
Forman7420241968
Danzig6920141982
Cooperstown6820241969
Buchanan6720241967
Carpio6120231967
Horsehead Lk5220241980
Lakota5120091968
Denbigh4920241969
Emerado4720241974
Braddock4720221988
Lakota 24720242010
Webster4520241989
Danzig 24520242019
Wimbledon4320241981
Rolla4020241969
Bowesmont3920141968
Stanley3620241967
Gorham3020181968
Montpelier3020241990
Edgeley2820241980
Cedar Creek2520221968
Parshall2520131982

Mallard Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.