BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard Population Trend in Kansas

All statesWaterfowl

Mallard in Kansas has collapsed: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-79%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mallard Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mallard has collapsed in Kansas: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Mallard Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Kansas is projected to rise about 146% by 2029 — from 0.35 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.85 (95% range 0.00–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±176.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+146%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.85Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±176.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Kansas is projected to rise about 146% by 2029 — from 0.35 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.85 (95% range 0.00–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±176.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.900.002.2
20260.890.002.2
20270.880.002.2
20280.860.002.2
20290.850.002.1

Mallard Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Mallard in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Leoti2020172003
Hanover519731973
Logan520191967
Lapland420211992
Missler420191975
Hodges420142000
Plymell420242000
Ashland320181978
Olathe320161979
Hays320081970
Grantville320211979
Rock Creek320052005
Galesburg219871987
Humboldt220022002
Jewell 2220212021
Wellington220241982
Lakin220151967
Dover220212002
Wreford220161998
Gray220191986
Jewell220011978
Gove220131985
Berwet220242000
Hopewell220132000
Goessel220172000

Mallard Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.