BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard Population Trend in Utah

All statesWaterfowl

Mallard in Utah has surged: up 433% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+433%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
82Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mallard Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mallard has surged in Utah: up 433% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Mallard Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Utah is projected to rise about 37% by 2029 — from 3.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 1.9–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+37%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.9–6.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±62.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Utah is projected to rise about 37% by 2029 — from 3.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 1.9–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.01.76.3
20264.11.76.4
20274.11.86.5
20284.21.86.5
20294.21.96.6

Mallard Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Mallard in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Vernal9420181999
Bear River5120231992
Goshen5020241987
Alton 23520242023
Dixie Nf2220241993
Kamas2020241997
Promontory1720231970
Randolph1620241992
Cleveland1520191992
Neponset Res1420181995
Saleratus Cr1320171995
Navajo Lake1220241968
E. Bear Lake1220221995
Grizzly Rdge1020241993
Bicknell1020211997
Crawford Mts920152015
Lynn820231982
Alton820191997
Delta620171987
Ferron620222013
Wellington 3520212014
Altonah520151973
Shivwitz520212021
Heber Mtn.520232000
Hanna520191999

Mallard Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.