BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard Population Trend in Ohio

All statesWaterfowl

Mallard in Ohio has held roughly steady: up 9% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+9%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
81Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mallard Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mallard in Ohio. See the full index history below.

Mallard Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Ohio is projected to fall about 44% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–6.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±132%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-44%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±132%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Ohio is projected to fall about 44% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–6.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±132%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.006.7
20261.30.006.6
20271.30.006.5
20281.20.006.5
20291.10.006.4

Mallard Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Mallard in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bismark8419951967
Lockport6220241971
Wayland5920161992
Newport5619941967
Graytown4419841966
N Baltimore3320191966
Marion1420231980
Harveysburg1319961985
Tecumseh819821966
Botkins720191992
Troy619961980
Lattasburg620191967
Meadowbrook620211984
New Somerset619931974
Birmingham620221992
Kalida520151969
Wilmington519961968
New Marshfld520171969
Scioto Furn520032003
W Carrollton520141989
Kingsway420181966
Strongsville419951967
Lenox420171972
Kings Creek420151992
Kenton420131969

Mallard Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.