BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard Population Trend in Virginia

All statesWaterfowl

Mallard in Virginia has surged: up 108% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+108%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mallard Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mallard has surged in Virginia: up 107% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Mallard Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Virginia is projected to rise about 132% by 2029 — from 0.29 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.67 (95% range 0.09–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±383.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+132%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.67Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±383.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Virginia is projected to rise about 132% by 2029 — from 0.29 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.67 (95% range 0.09–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±383.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.640.071.2
20260.650.071.2
20270.660.081.2
20280.660.091.2
20290.670.091.2

Mallard Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Mallard in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Stanley1020241977
Quinby920041967
Newsoms720011974
Brandy Station520212021
Star Tannery420071978
Waverly419841978
Taylorstown320031968
Chincoteag W320221993
Edinburg320221978
White Stone320211981
Brodnax320241975
Backbay319741969
Cornland320071979
Blacksburg320181988
W Augusta220162001
Rural Retrt219961989
Partlow220062006
David220061981
Newbern219791979
Brandon220111996
Sharps220041996
Cape Charles220131996
Branchville220041967
Churchville120181974
Jerome120211972

Mallard Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.