BirdAnalyst
Species · Louisiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesWaterfowl

Mallard in Louisiana has declined: down 39% on the route-weighted index since 1989.

-39%Since 1989TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
26YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mallard Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mallard in Louisiana. See the full index history below.

Mallard Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Louisiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±126.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±126.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Louisiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±126.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.140.000.51
20230.140.000.51
20240.130.000.51
20250.130.000.51
20260.130.000.51

Mallard Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Mallard in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Glencoe2020172010
Natchitoches1119891987
Richard820102010
Mayflower719891975
Shaw619961990
Cypress619871987
Brousville520122010
Pearl River420152015
Bickham320131994
River Road220172017
Roseland220082008
Baton Rouge220212000
Franklinton220162016
Floyd219911991
Zwolle220121998
Transylvania220001999
Natchez219961996
Longstreet120102010
Maurice120011999
Woodlawn120172017

Mallard Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.