BirdAnalyst
Species · Louisiana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mallard Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesWaterfowl

Mallard in Louisiana has collapsed: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1989.

-90%Since 1989TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mallard Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mallard has collapsed in Louisiana: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1989.

Mallard Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Louisiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±189.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±189.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Louisiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±189.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.110.000.48
20270.110.000.48
20280.110.000.48
20290.110.000.48
20300.100.000.47

Mallard Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Mallard in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Glencoe2020172010
Natchitoches1119891987
Richard820102010
Mayflower719891975
Shaw619961990
Cypress619871987
Brousville520122010
Pearl River420152015
Bickham320131994
Roseland220082008
Baton Rouge220212000
Franklinton220162016
Floyd219911991
Zwolle220121998
Transylvania220001999
Natchez219961996
River Road120252017
Longstreet120102010
Maurice120011999
Woodlawn120172017

Mallard Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.