BirdAnalyst
Species · Wyoming · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard Population Trend in Wyoming

All statesWaterfowl

Mallard in Wyoming has held roughly steady: down 2% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-2%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
127Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mallard Trends in WyomingNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mallard in Wyoming. See the full index history below.

Mallard Population Forecast in Wyoming

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Wyoming is projected to rise about 68% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 0.96–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+68%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.96–5.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±74.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Wyoming is projected to rise about 68% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 0.96–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.20.955.5
20263.20.955.5
20273.20.965.5
20283.20.965.5
20293.20.965.5

Mallard Survey Routes in Wyoming

Routes recording Mallard in Wyoming.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rock River6120221990
Yellowstone4120221987
Hayden Val2519861985
Seedskadee 22420242024
Anchor2120161993
Kaycee2120242024
Clark1920101990
Clarkelen1619781968
Pathfinder1520221983
Lovell1420181991
Recluse1320241982
Daniel1219881980
Baggs1220041997
Farson1120182005
Piney1019871980
Shirley1020081980
Fontenelle920241982
Brookhurst920161969
Seely920001990
Wilson920221979
Boulder920241982
Upton820241987
Diamondville819811977
Green River819841977
Patrick Draw719801973

Mallard Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.