BirdAnalyst
Species · Wyoming · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mallard Population Trend in Wyoming

All statesWaterfowl

Mallard in Wyoming has edged down: down 12% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-12%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
129Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mallard Trends in WyomingNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mallard in Wyoming. See the full index history below.

Mallard Population Forecast in Wyoming

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Wyoming is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 2.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 0.96–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.96–5.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Wyoming is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 2.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 0.96–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.20.965.4
20273.20.965.4
20283.20.965.4
20293.20.965.4
20303.20.965.4

Mallard Survey Routes in Wyoming

Routes recording Mallard in Wyoming.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rock River6120221990
Kaycee3520252024
Wyarno3220251974
Hayden Val2519861985
Seedskadee 22420242024
Midvale2220251975
Anchor2120161993
Riverside1920251970
Clark1920101990
Clarkelen1619781968
Yoder1420251968
Lovell1420181991
Recluse1320241982
Harmony1320251980
Daniel1219881980
Baggs1220041997
Rozet1220251991
Farson1120182005
Piney1019871980
Shirley1020081980
Carter 21020252017
Brookhurst920161969
Seely920001990
Warbonnet920251996
Yellowstone920251987

Mallard Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.