BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mallard Population Trend in Washington

All statesWaterfowl

Mallard in Washington has edged down: down 10% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-10%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
93Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mallard Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mallard in Washington. See the full index history below.

Mallard Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Washington is projected to rise about 60% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 0.22–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+60%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.22–5.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±92.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Washington is projected to rise about 60% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 0.22–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.80.215.3
20272.80.215.3
20282.80.215.3
20292.80.225.3
20302.80.225.3

Mallard Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Mallard in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bay View13620171993
Yakima2120251993
Rainier1620132005
Kendall1520251995
Horn Rapids1420212008
Brewster1320181977
Port Angeles1120251971
Rimrock820251969
Camas820091977
Tonasket820181982
Harwood819971993
Winthrop620211983
Odessa620241993
Columbia Nwr620211992
Asotin520221988
Mesa520081994
Hanford Site519961988
Connell419981970
Keystone420251994
Mukilteo420251993
Ewan 2420242023
Deception420171992
Turnbull Nwr420231993
Ewan320191983
Othello319911981

Mallard Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.