BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mallard Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesWaterfowl

Mallard in Minnesota has surged: up 173% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+173%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
90Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mallard Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mallard has surged in Minnesota: up 173% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Mallard Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Minnesota is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 8.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.8 (95% range 2.6–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±87.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.6–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±87.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Minnesota is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 8.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.8 (95% range 2.6–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±87.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.72.513
20277.72.513
20287.72.513
20297.72.613
20307.82.613

Mallard Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Mallard in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chokio North9920251993
Fairmont6420251993
Glyndon6220251978
Big Stone5920121995
Knapp4120241967
Chokio4120251970
Maynard4020141967
Lakeville3420251968
Appleton3320251978
Glenwood3020191993
Minnetonka2420251969
Tenney2420161978
Bagley1920061995
New London1820241994
Courtland1620251978
Sherburne Nr1520251990
Dawson1320251974
Tyler1320251993
Floodwood820241970
Lake Bronson820111978
Nebish820251982
Osseo720251967
Worthington720252004
Redwood Fall620251978
Lude620231978

Mallard Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.