BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesWaterfowl

Mallard in Minnesota has surged: up 107% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+107%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
90Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mallard Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mallard has surged in Minnesota: up 107% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Mallard Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Minnesota is projected to rise about 45% by 2029 — from 5.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.6 (95% range 2.4–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±97.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+45%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.4–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±97.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Minnesota is projected to rise about 45% by 2029 — from 5.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.6 (95% range 2.4–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±97.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.62.313
20267.62.313
20277.62.413
20287.62.413
20297.62.413

Mallard Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Mallard in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Big Stone5920121995
Knapp4120241967
Maynard4020141967
Courtland3520241978
Le Center3220161993
Glenwood3020191993
Chokio2720241970
Tenney2420161978
Chokio North2120241993
Glyndon1920241978
Bagley1920061995
New London1820241994
Appleton1320241978
Evergreen1320241967
Dawson920241974
Franklin920241993
Tyler920241993
Floodwood820241970
Lake Bronson820111978
Greenbush820241993
Arlington720241967
Lude620231978
Worthington620232004
Island Lake519951970
Frontenac520181996

Mallard Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.