BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard Population Trend in Texas

All statesWaterfowl

Mallard in Texas has surged: up 137% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+137%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
82Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mallard Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mallard has surged in Texas: up 137% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Mallard Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Texas is projected to rise about 114% by 2029 — from 0.27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.57 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±206.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+114%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.57Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±206.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Texas is projected to rise about 114% by 2029 — from 0.27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.57 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±206.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.570.001.3
20260.570.001.3
20270.570.001.3
20280.570.001.3
20290.570.001.3

Mallard Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Mallard in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Claytonville1320221995
Post920241989
Pantex920241974
Chandler620041979
Waka620241975
Dougherty620241995
Twichell620231997
Katy520101985
Channing519901969
Panhandle520241994
Dove Mtn.520042003
Utopia419711971
Kempner419731973
Gainesville420041999
Circle420161968
Port Acres420152004
Winnie319881988
New Waverly319761975
Glen Rose319971997
Graford320151991
Albany319991986
Childress320191973
Texline320221978
Floydada320231976
Thornton 3320192019

Mallard Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.