Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Mallard Population Trend in Texas
Mallard in Texas has surged: up 137% on the route-weighted index since 1971.
+137%Since 1971
82Routes In State
54Years
Notable Mallard Trends in Texas
long arc increasecomputed index
Mallard has surged in Texas: up 137% on the route-weighted index since 1971.
Mallard Population Forecast in Texas
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Texas is projected to rise about 114% by 2029 — from 0.27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.57 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±206.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
+114%Change by 2029
0.57Projected 2029 index
0.00–1.395% range
±206.8%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.57 | 0.00 | 1.3 |
| 2026 | 0.57 | 0.00 | 1.3 |
| 2027 | 0.57 | 0.00 | 1.3 |
| 2028 | 0.57 | 0.00 | 1.3 |
| 2029 | 0.57 | 0.00 | 1.3 |
Mallard Survey Routes in Texas
| Claytonville | 13 | 2022 | 1995 |
| Post | 9 | 2024 | 1989 |
| Pantex | 9 | 2024 | 1974 |
| Chandler | 6 | 2004 | 1979 |
| Waka | 6 | 2024 | 1975 |
| Dougherty | 6 | 2024 | 1995 |
| Twichell | 6 | 2023 | 1997 |
| Katy | 5 | 2010 | 1985 |
| Channing | 5 | 1990 | 1969 |
| Panhandle | 5 | 2024 | 1994 |
| Dove Mtn. | 5 | 2004 | 2003 |
| Utopia | 4 | 1971 | 1971 |
| Kempner | 4 | 1973 | 1973 |
| Gainesville | 4 | 2004 | 1999 |
| Circle | 4 | 2016 | 1968 |
| Port Acres | 4 | 2015 | 2004 |
| Winnie | 3 | 1988 | 1988 |
| New Waverly | 3 | 1976 | 1975 |
| Glen Rose | 3 | 1997 | 1997 |
| Graford | 3 | 2015 | 1991 |
| Albany | 3 | 1999 | 1986 |
| Childress | 3 | 2019 | 1973 |
| Texline | 3 | 2022 | 1978 |
| Floydada | 3 | 2023 | 1976 |
| Thornton 3 | 3 | 2019 | 2019 |
Mallard Population Trend in Other States
alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.